Where are the jobs?

The newspapers and the TV news takes us on a roller coaster ride almost every week – the stock market is up, recession is abating, we’ll see fewer job cuts and the next week there is a turnaround – the job cuts this month had been higher than ever before, there are signs of economy getting back on track but there are no new jobs being created. Stock market ups and downs must not be a direct tally to how employment problems are in this country at present.
Even the big bankruptcies are not behind us (see the latest CIT bankruptcy filing report); just as the economic pundits are making a claim everywhere that the worst is behind us.

BUT- Where are the jobs?
The statistics are disturbing; Mort Zuckerman, the writer is editor in chief of US News & World Report and chairman and co-founder of Boston Properties says in a interesting article on Financial Times; “A quarter of teenagers, about 1.6m youths, are without work. The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52 per cent, a post-war high. But even the 45-to-54 age group has seen job losses, with employment down by more than 1.2m. These are people who should be in the prime of their wage-earning years. It will take these older workers longer to find jobs; some will have to settle for considerably less pay.”

Read this article to get an eye-opening insight on how underestimated (as reported) the unemployed numbers are in the US.

Unless we have more jobs created and the unemployed getting back to work, there is no chance of seeing a complete or even substantial improvement in economy. So where are the jobs are who should be creating them?
We hear from our government often that action is being taken to create more investments and more jobs in such and such areas, but nothing concrete is showing up for the general public, most of those unemployed have been without a stable income for more than 6 months. The problem needs to be addressed on a large scale and also the government needs to set up separate committees and websites making these announcements more transparent to the public.
But it is not the sole responsibility of the government to create jobs, the larger companies of this country are making enormous profits and there must be a channel of social responsibility for these multinational giants to take the lead and work towards creating more employment in different areas and consider acquisitions to acquire more wealth a second priority. The responsibility also lies in the hands of the small business owners of this country to create low-level jobs but of course the support must come from the government of the country.

Related Posts:
Share

Will the lost Jobs come back

Economic recovery at present and in near future is a debatable topic and many are not certain on what that means for the lost jobs. Will the jobs come back when the recession abates?
I had stalled on this topic for sometime, the layoffs had abated in April and there was much expectation of a turnaround.. but then employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, far more than expected and the jobless rate in the US is at a high high of 9.5 percent.
It makes us worry more on this question, will the lost jobs come back? Should we wait with our current skills and experience to continue in the same field as before or is it time to look at different alternatives? Be it moving to the new clean tech energy sectors or starting a business or learning new skills which prepare us for a new work and work culture in near future; it is the time to explore different answers and not be afraid to ask such questions.

What would you do to prepare for something new or unknown in the future?

Share

The World Rides the Recession Wave

The news of recession and job losses is all over the world and there would be very few countries not affected by one of the worst unemployment rates ever seen by the Generation Xers and the Millennials. The global economy is intertwined and a large shake-up at one end of the globe transfers the impact throughout the world.
Here is a compilation of news from around the world on what is happening from Asia to Europe and the Americas as the world rides the recession and severe job cuts wave.

United States

US indeed triggered the world economic downturn but being the largest economy as it is this was very much predicted and expected.

According to an article in Yahoo News:

The U.S. Labour Department said earlier this month (April 2009) that companies cut a net total of 663,000 jobs in March, sending the unemployment rate up to 8.5 per cent, the highest in 25 years.
The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate will probably “rise more steeply into early next year before flattening out at a high level over the rest of the year,” according to minutes from the central bank’s March meeting released this month. Many private economists expect the rate to hit 10 per cent by year’s end.

Finding a new job is increasingly difficult for those who have been laid off. Typically, hiring doesn’t pick up until well after an economic recovery is under way.

Canada (Source: Stockhouse )

OTTAWA – Jobs are disappearing in Canada at a rate not seen since the deep recession of the early 1980s, new figures show.
Statistics Canada reported Thursday that Canada lost another 61,300 jobs in March 2009, taking the unemployment rate up three-tenths of a point to eight per cent for the first time in seven years.
Since the peak in October, employment has fallen each month for a total of 357,000 jobs lost, representing 2.1 per cent of the workforce. That’s a pace of contraction greater than at any time during the 1991 recession and equaling that of the more severe 1982 slump.

Russia

Sky News reports:

Just eight months ago when oil prices were at a record high, it seemed to many Russians the good times would last forever.
But the economy – once one of the fastest growing in the world – is now hurtling into recession.
The problems the country faces are enormous, partly because it failed to diversify in the boom times.
Its dependence on receipts from the export of oil and gas has given rise to a hugely unbalanced economy.

According to Javno:

Some 1.8 million Russians lost their jobs in the first three months of 2009, taking the jobless rate to an 8 year-high, data showed on Monday in a sign that it may be too soon to talk about the bottoming of the crisis.
Officials had been saying that the worst of the crisis may be over for Russia, taking heart from higher global oil prices, a stabilisation of the rouble and a recovery in domestic stocks.
But with retail sales, real wages and capital investment all falling sharper than expected in March, the data suggests that Russia’s first economic contraction in a decade is still very much in full swing. “We see this data as an indication that … the decline is starting to spread to consumer demand and it will continue to pressure the economy over the next several quarters at least,” said Vladimir Osakovsky, analyst at Unicredit.
India

There are numerous multinational companies in India and the layoffs in the large organizations affect all such countries. The layoffs are worldwide and every nation feels the reverberations of a large shakeup anywhere in the world.

(Source: The National )

A US-style wave of layoffs has not hit India, but the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry estimates that Indian businesses could lay off nearly 25 per cent of their workforce this year across such areas as information technology, real estate, construction, aviation and financial services. Close to 40 million middle-class workers are employed by these sectors.
Unlike in the West, there is no system of social security, or unemployment insurance, in India, and most workers who are laid off are on their own.

China (Source: CNN.com )

Job losses triggered by the global financial crisis have driven some 20 million Chinese workers from cities back to their rural homelands, according to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency.
Migrant workers arrive at Beijing’s West Railway Station on Monday, despite growing unemployment.
Quoting a senior official and a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture, Xinhua said about 15.3 percent of the 130 million workers who migrated to metropolitan areas in years past have returned to the countryside.

China Daily reports on the path of recovery for China:

Bob Hawke, former prime minister of Australia, forecast China’s GDP growth between 7 percent to 8 percent. In the meantime, he believed a reversal had come.
“The four-trillion-yuan stimulus (package) is now beginning to work, and China’s economy … has reached the bottom and started to come up now,” Hawke told Xinhua at the forum.
Increasing stress of sluggish exports, dampened employment and shrinking corporate profits have pulled down the Chinese economy to a growth of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter last year.

Japan

Huffington Post reports :
The (Japanese) government is now considering earmarking public money for companies that take up work-sharing to curb surging joblessness as the world’s second-largest economy slides into what authorities are calling Japan’s worst recession since World War II.
Companies big and small are expecting losses or drastically dwindling profits. Thousands of job cuts have been announced in recent weeks.
Many Japanese companies are adopting “work-sharing” to ride out the global slump.

Europe

According to a report in May 2009, the European Union admitted that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts “A deep and widespread recession” across the continent and says unemployment among nations using the euro currency will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010. The new forecasts expect the economies of the 27-nation EU and the 16-nation euro zone to shrink by 4 percent this year – more than double the January estimate.
The European Commission said more than 26 million people in the EU will be out of work next year as a contracting economy sheds an extra 8.5 million jobs.

According to The Guardian

Mainland Europe is bracing itself for thousands more job cuts as Philips warned of further restructuring to staunch mounting losses and the German arm of Woolworths filed for bankruptcy.

In Switzerland the country’s biggest bank, UBS, is reportedly planning to axe up to 10,000 more jobs as early as next week (April 2009) as it struggles to regain profitability – and credibility.

United Kingdom

(Source: SKY News )

In February 45,657, 7.3% of the city’s potential workforce, claimed JSA – compared to 12,383 the same time last year.
The number of unemployed people also rose significantly in Leeds, Glasgow, Sheffield, Hull, Manchester, Bradford, Kirklees, Liverpool and Bristol.

Germany

The New York Times reports of large unemployment surges in Germany.

Because of the nature of the world economic crisis, rising unemployment in Germany is largely bypassing the poor areas of the east and striking at the heart of the country’s wealthy industrial areas in the western and southern regions.
The German automaker Daimler, which has placed some 70,000 workers on short-hour status, said recently that it could no longer rule out job cuts.

Spain

Spain had some interesting headlines in relation to layoffs and recession “Pain in Spain” and “The Fiesta is over in recession-stricken Spain”
MSN MoneyCentral reports :

Almeria Province, a bone-dry patch of coastal southeast Spain, was once the setting for spaghetti westerns such as “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” Later it became a place to make fortunes building sun-drenched vacation homes and golf courses. High-tech greenhouses sprang up, offering Europe a year-round source of fruit and vegetables.

Now, two years after the real estate bubble burst, the province is one of the gushing wounds in Spain’s recession-plagued economy.

Almeria’s unemployment rate of 25 percent is one of Spain’s highest, and makes the nationwide figure of 13.9 percent — already the highest in the European Union — seem mild.As the global meltdown worsens, it offers a glimpse of where Spain may be heading. The government says unemployment nationally will reach 16 percent this year, and some forecasters say it may approach 20 percent.

The African Continent

The Herald of Zimbabwe reports:

Africa is facing difficult times. The effects of the global economic recession and climate change have already begun to reverse the progress the continent has made over the last decade.
Many countries are experiencing reduced trade and economic activity, withdrawal of investors and an acute scarcity of credit. Projects are being postponed or cancelled altogether. Financial inflows are dropping, including levels of international assistance and remittances.
The result is that the ability of African countries to support basic services, tackle their developmental challenges and achieve the Millennium Development Goals is being heavily impaired. The human, social and political consequences could be enormous.
Africa now needs urgent support to maintain economic activity and protect the vulnerable from the crisis. But while trillions of dollars are being found, at short notice, for stimulus plans and bail outs in the richer countries, the least developed countries find themselves lacking access to credit and faced with lending policies and practices that minimise their chances of receiving loans.
The evidence is that Africa is hit twice. Not only are poorer countries going to be most affected by the global crisis, but the very way in which the developed world has responded to the crisis continues to worsen their situation by encouraging capital to flee to perceived safety. Lacking the means to argue their case at the top tables in the global economic and financial architecture, Africa’s countries are left to face the very real danger of malignant decoupling, derailment and abandonment.
Australia

Much better placed than other countries, it was made official in April 2009, that the Australian economy is in recession.
According to BBC report:

The economy shrank by 0.5% in the last three months of 2008.
This decline – revealed last month – was the first time the economy had seen a quarterly contraction in eight years.
If data shows the economy shrank between January and March, then Australia will be in recession according to the usual definition of two consecutive quarters of falling output
.
The Australian economy is now likely to be in recession, the head of the country’s central bank has admitted.

Despite the warning, he insisted that Australia was well placed to weather the global recession, thanks to its close proximity and trading ties to “dynamic” Asian markets, specifically China.
“Australia’s genuine long-term economic prospects remain good,” he said.


Share

The Job Market has still not seen the Bottom

It’s bleak out there and the news on the job scenario going more dismal before going up takes one further on the depression trail.
According to a recent report, the path to an economic comeback may be a long way from now:

In a speech at Morehouse College in Atlanta, Bernanke talked of flickering signs of improvement, citing recent data on home and auto sales, home building and consumer spending.
But the government’s broader message — that a full turnaround might be a long time coming — may not be welcome news for a weary U.S. public.
Obama, in fact, said in his speech that a complete recovery depends on building a new foundation for the U.S. economy and making changes in the political landscape. And he said anew that rules governing the financial system must be made compatible with Digital Age technology and innovation, telling Congress that “I expect a bill to arrive on my desk for signature before the year is out.”
He also said the economy must be transformed from one less dependent on a risk-obsessed financial sector and more on clean energy, good education and health care costs brought under control.
We cannot rebuild this economy on the same pile of sand,” he said, invoking a Biblical reference to Jesus’ Sermon on the Mount. “We must build our house upon a rock. We must lay a new foundation for growth and prosperity a foundation that will move us from an era of borrow and spend to one where we save and invest, where we consume less at home and send more exports abroad.


See and try to decipher a message that is related to the new job scenario; could this be a possible indication that the present lost jobs (many; of course not all) may be gone forever? Is it the time to reinvent our careers to suit to the new demands of the future? If we are rebuilding on new grounds then our skills might need to be revamped too. Doing what we have done so far and the education we have might not be enough to rejoin a new workplace with different requirements; if that is so, is this the time to change tracks?

What do you say?

Share

What a week – Close to 50,000 Jobs will be wiped out soon

This week’s reports say it all – in the newspapers and the online business editions; it has been a terrible week in terms of job loss in the US. According to the leading newspapers and reports the job market scenario is looking bleaker than ever. In one week itself close to 50,000 positions have been announced to be eliminated in the coming couple of months by industry giants, from the pharmaceutical to the tech to the motor industry, everyone is feeling the high pressure crunch of the economic downturn.
Here is a snapshot which we rather hoped never happened, but it is just the first month of the year and if more such weeks are in store for us; it won’t be easy wriggling out of the recession any sooner.

According to a recent report on Yahoo:

  • Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc. to slash 8,000 jobs
  • Sprint Nextel Corp. is eliminating about 8,000 positions in the first quarter as it seeks to cut annual costs by $1.2 billion.
  • Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement retailer in the U.S., to get rid of 7,000 jobs.
  • General Motors Corp. said it will cut 2,000 jobs at plants in Michigan and Ohio due to slow sales.
  • Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of mining and construction equipment, announced 5,000 new layoffs on top of several earlier actions. An additional 2,500 workers already have accepted buyout offers, and ties have been severed with about 8,000 contract workers worldwide. In addition, about 4,000 full-time factory workers already have been let go.
  • Just last week, Microsoft Corp. said it will slash up to 5,000 jobs over the next 18 months.
  • Intel Corp. said it will cut up to 6,000 manufacturing jobs.
  • United Airlines parent UAL Corp. said it would get rid of 1,000 jobs, on top of 1,500 axed late last year.

Update: and not a good one…

I thought 50k was big enough … and then I read the CNN Money’s headlines which screams: Bloody Monday: Over 71,400 jobs lost–Seven companies announce massive job cuts in a scary start to the week.

What I was compiling here earlier in the day has been better done here. A depressing news but it is what it is now.

Since this blog is more towards turning the tide towards the positive side; let’s once again visit the previous few posts which focus on how to deal with a layoff or how to manage your career during a recession:

Post Layoff 5 Step Successful Comeback Plan
5 Essential Tips on Thriving after a Layoff
Alternatives to a Permanent Full Time Job
Going Back to College – A Good Move during Recession
Recreate and Diversify in a Recession
Managing your Career during Recession
Best Jobs to have during Recession
Learning from a Layoff – is it the Right Time to Innovate and be Independent?

Managers and employers, if you want to get the best out of your employees in these uncertain times it is time to increase productivity and keep them away from the depressing thoughts and scenes of layoffs around. Here are some good tips on the OpenForum blog : 5 Tips for More Productivity in 2009

If you have been in a layoff recently what are you doing to maintain a positive outlook and reviving your job search strategies?

Share

To Beat Recession we should use less of the ‘R’ word

Maybe to beat recession we must use less of the “r” word in the media these days. The newspapers are depressing, the news online on tech and business is overflowing with the news on layoffs and recession. I know that they are reporting what is actually happening around and running away from the truth does not turn things around, but could things be made slightly better if we read some positive news and stories daily?

Today in the Business section of the newspaper, there is a positive news on the Gaming Industry (Gaming industry sees record year – people are still looking for ways to have fun), my husband was quite inspired and immediately remarked – should we buy a Wii now?
I smiled; had the news been towards negative aspect- “gaming industry hit hard by recession”, I am sure his comments would not have been the same.
Yesterday, I was outside enjoying the gorgeous sunny day – another golden sunshiny day in California, and happened to greet the PG&E guy who checks on the meter. “How’s PG&E doing?” I asked the guy (instead of a polite how are you, I was not surprised to hear myself greeting him thus – the “r” word being always on the mind).
“Oh well, just OK, maybe like everyone else.” He said. But what he said next set me thinking and the reason for today’s short post.
“At least there was some good news, all the passengers on the US Airways flight survived. It started my day off well.”
What do you say? Do you think to beat the downturn we must read and do things that are more motivating? Could it turn the tide?
Share

Pay Raise in 2009 – Are you Expecting one?

Recently there has been some “outrage” in the press (Fox News, Rocky Mountain News to name a few), on the automatic pay raise for the members of congress. An article in The Hill rightfully says: A crumbling economy, more than 2 million constituents who have lost their jobs this year and congressional demands of CEOs to work for free did not convince lawmakers to freeze their own pay. Instead, they will get a $4,700 pay increase, amounting to an additional $2.5 million that taxpayers will spend on congressional salaries, and watchdog groups are not happy about it.There is even a petition going around to stop the congress pay raise for 2009.
And better there be one; with a lot of belt-tightening and layoffs happening all over, it is time for the lawmakers to show solidarity with the working class which is suffering in the recession and a tough job market.

With a lot of discussion going on the automatic pay raise that rolls on every year for the members of congress, can the employees expect some pay raise this year?
What are your expectations and estimates for a pay raise or bonus this year?

Share

How is the Job Outlook for 2009?

According to CNNMoney.com,
the prediction that this recession may end around the middle of 2009 is not unreasonable, but even if accurate it disguises the critical question: What kind of a recovery is likely to follow? The answer is: probably a gradual one, unlike the more typical (but not universal) pattern of the economy coming out of most past recessions roaring ahead, propelled by pent-up consumer demand.
The healing process of a deeply wounded banking system, that has already led to nearly $1 trillion of write-downs, will act as a weight around the neck of any economic recovery in the latter part of 2009. Banks will likely continue the slow process of recapitalization and cleaning up the mountains of toxic assets on their balance sheets for a period longer than just the next few quarters.
That task will become even more challenging in the months ahead, as the recession itself will tend to generate an additional amount of toxic assets in their portfolios, impairing their ability to resume a more normal pace of lending. So, even though the economy may technically emerge from the recession in the second half of 2009, the recovery may initially become more of an issue of semantics rather than a robust turnaround in economic activity.”

With such a prediction around, it is more likely that the job market would be pretty much under freeze most of the next year. The nations’ unemployment rate is on the rise and some of the states are more affected than others (those predominantly relying on manufacturing and other areas which are seeing major job cuts); there would be only few regions which would not be affected by this major recession which leaves a deeper mark because of the fall of the major financial institutions. Already many companies have gone through major layoffs and cut back in their spending for the year, it would not be a shock to see many more coming in the year 2009.

With a sluggish economy, hiring freeze and forecast of more job losses, what should you do if you are someone looking for a job (you could be a fresh graduate, someone reentering the workforce, or someone who has recently been in a layoff)?

It is right that there are many layoffs around and hiring is tougher than ever before, but many government plans would soon be underway to ensure employment increases to boost economy, it would be wise to research and analyze where the funds are being invested – renewable energy sector, solar energy, green-tech, bio-medical or research and development – the world is not going to stop for this recession. If jobs are being slashed in some areas there are others which will be thriving, so be ready for change and the first step is to be well-informed.

If you are searching for a job in the US, I would strongly suggest that you read The Occupational Outlook Handbook, developed by the US department of Labor. It is a nationally recognized source of career information, designed to provide valuable assistance to individuals making decisions about their future work lives.
If you are not in the US, it is well worth some time spent on research to find out if your country has a similar publication on careers and jobs informing you on the training and education needed to get a job, earnings estimate, expected job prospects, what workers do on the job and the working conditions for a particular job sector.

Job fairs are still going, although you will see longer lines and less smiling faces but at least you will get some first hand info of the scenario in your region.Once you have done the ground work and research on the present situation it is time to act and some more tips on how to go on further are at How to Find a Job when there are none around.

Please also share your tips by adding them in the comments to this post on how to find a job during a recession.

Share

Leaving Wall Street – The Major Job Losses that follow Bankruptcies

The depressing news of the market crashing and the investment giants wiped off the charts has increased the anxiety of the impending job losses and where will it all finally end. How many job losses could result of such bankruptcies is yet to be seen but for sure there will be many who will be out of job in the coming months. In the past bankruptcies and mergers have sent many heads rolling and in these tougher economic times things could get worse. Here is a short compilation from what the major news agencies are forecasting and what is already on the way.

CNN Money reports:
With thousands of Lehman workers preparing to pack their bags, experts say other Wall Street firms probably aren’t done with layoffs either.
“Most people are assuming that they’re out of a job at Lehman Brothers,” said David Schwartz, head of executive search firm DN Schwartz & Co in New York. Schwartz said he wouldn’t be surprised if upwards of 20,000 Lehman workers lose their jobs. That would amount to more than 75% of the company’s total workforce
When Bear Stearns was acquired by JPMorgan Chase earlier this year, about 9,000 workers, or more than half of Bear Stearns’ employees, lost their jobs – many of whom are still looking for full-time employment.
“Unfortunately, we’ve not seen the end of the layoffs on Wall Street and I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better,” Schwartz said.
Other experts also said the worst is yet to come. Between now and the end of the year, “the Wall Street layoffs are going to be enormous,” according to Bernard.
The International Herald Tribune has a dismal headline on today saying “Lehman’s demise will flood an already crowded job market”. The article says: Headhunters and consultants said the U.S. financial services sector, already suffering from a glut of unemployed talent after shedding more than 100,000 jobs this year, must now brace for as many as 50,000 more.
“The résumé flow will start on Monday like there’s no tomorrow,” said Michael Karp, chief executive at the executive search and consulting firm Options Group in New York. “This is seriously going to impact compensation this year, across the Street and all over the world as well.
CNN Money reports
“Lehman Brothers employees, which totaled some 26,000 as of the end of June, were seen carting off their belongings from corporate headquarters in midtown Manhattan as early as Sunday evening. Still, company officials at either Lehman or Merrill provided little indication about how many jobs would be lost as a result of Monday’s announcement.
Wall Street firms have lost close to 10,000 jobs, or more than 5% of the work force, so far this year, according to the latest figures from the New York State Department of Labor.”

Impact on the Global Workforce
Debacle of a large economy often sends out the ripples through the world. The global economy today is very much entwined together and every continent will see major job losses when the Wall Street goes nose diving.
The Banking Times of UK says:
Investment bank, Lehman Brothers, is reducing staff numbers by around 5%. It is understood that the bulk of the 1,425 job losses will be made throughout the bank’s US operations. However, Lehman Brothers has its European headquarters at Canary Wharf and London will come second to the US in terms of job losses. The bank has not ruled out the possibility of further jobs losses in the City, should Europe follow the US into a marked economic slowdown.
Though not specific how many layoffs are impending through the year, it certainly is a bleak scenario for many in the industry.
Times fo India reports on massive job cuts in coming future:
If market estimates are anything to go by, what’s happening in the global financial markets can result in the loss of as many as 20,000 to 25,000 jobs in India. That means, the likes of Cognizant, TCS, Infosys, HCL, Wipro and Satyam will announce huge lay-offs over the next couple of quarters. TOI had reported last week that Satyam was already planning a substantial workforce reduction.
Share

US Recession and the Global Economy – Snapshots from the Media


Job Cuts Maximum in last 2 Years in the US – recession fears are evident on the present US economy and global repercussions are not far behind, though already visible in some countries.
According to a recent report in the San Jose Mercury News: In March, construction companies cut 51,000 jobs, factories eliminated 48,000 positions, retailers cut payrolls by more than 12,000. Professional and businesses services lost 35,000 jobs and temporary help firms cut nearly 22,000 jobs. Financial firms chopped 5,000 jobs.
When government hiring was removed, the numbers looked even worse. Private employers shed 98,000 jobs in March.

Will US lead a global recession this year or the thriving economies of China and India can ride it out on their own?

Here are some snapshots from the print media around the world:

Economy is in recession, Bloomberg economist survey says:
The world’s largest economy will contract from January-June 2008, according to the median of 62 economists surveyed from April 2-8, 2008, Bloomberg News reported. A majority now predicts that the U.S. economy is, or will soon be, in a recession.
Economist Glen Langan, who did not participate in the survey, said Wednesday that aside from the oil / oil services sector and agricultural exports, there’s little that’s positive about the U.S. economy right now.
The IMF reckons that there is a 25% chance of the world economy growing by less than 3% in 2008 and 2009, the equivalent of recession, in its view. The origins of this crisis lie in the biggest asset bubble in history; financial markets have already suffered arguably their biggest shock for 80 years; and America is not the only developed economy suffering (Britain’s housing market, for instance, is showing the same symptoms as America’s—see article). But so far at least there is little evidence that the world economy is falling off a cliff.

The World Bank‘s just-published report, Global Economic Prospects 2008, predicts that the economies of developing countries like China and India “will play a crucial role in preventing the global economy from suffering a hard landing this year as the impact of the U.S. slowdown and turmoil in the credit markets continue…as those countries are taking over the baton of growth in the world economy.” (Guardian; World Bank’s report available here.) (Source: sfgate.com)

An article from China-based McKinsey & Company consultants reports: A slowdown in the U.S. economy won’t have that much impact on China’s continued fast-paced growth. Domestic demand in China, led by the upswing in construction, investments in infrastructure, and strong consumer spending, will keep the economy moving along just fine. The export sector in China, when measured as value-added, contributes about 9 percent to GDP, according to UBS analysis, and employs about 7 percent of the workforce. Reduced demand in the U.S. could result in slower growth for some Chinese manufacturers, and perhaps trigger some employment pressure, particularly on China’s east coast. But the overall impact is unlikely to be major.

In an article in Harvard Business, the author B V Krishnamurthy says: It would be naïve to imagine that a recession in the United States would have no impact on India. The United States accounts for one-fourth of the world GDP and any significant slowdown is bound to have reverberations elsewhere. On the other hand, interdependencies between the US economy and emerging economies like India and China has reduced considerably over the last two decades. Thus, the effect may not be as drastic as would have been the case in the 1980s.
Much has happened between then and now. The Indian economy has shown a robust and consistent growth trajectory and the projection for 2008 is 9%. Indian exports to the United States account for just over 3% of GDP. India has a healthy trade surplus with the United States. In other words, the effects of this recession on India may be quite distinct from those of the past.

He presents some interesting statistics in support of the statement.

Share